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General, Social Media

It takes you seeing 440 people to find a person with COVID in Orlando today

 

Using today’s numbers for Orange and Osceola counties in Central Florida, I calculate you need to run into 440 people to find 1 person actively infected with COVID-19!

Additionally, I think that number is overly generous.

Those who are symptomatic with COVID-19 will likely be staying home. Your risk of exposure is to those who are infected but not yet symptomatic. To run into someone who meets those criteria, you need to brush shoulders with many more people here in Orlando.

Using the previous 7 days to project forward:
We had a total of 1500 new cases over the last 7 days. If last weeks COVID-19 infection rate remained steady, you would need to run into 1550 people in Orlando to find 1 person who could possibly share their infection with you.

Keep washing your hands, wearing your masks, and staying 6 ft away from others, and we will keep this pandemic in check!

#WashHands #WearMasks #KeepYourDistance #StaySafe #YourOrlandoDoctor #PrimaryCare #AnchorDPC

General

Hydroxychloroquine and COVID-19

 

Hydroxychloroquine and COVID-19 – What is true, Who to believe?

I am being asked by many people about Hydroxychloroquine (HCQ) and COVID-19 so I felt the need to do a deep dive into this subject. I am also going to admit right away that I, like everyone else, have high hopes we identify a medication that works for this disease.

This subject continues to be controversial. Recently an opinion piece by a respected Yale epidemiologist in favor of HCQ use published in Newsweek brought it back to public discussion.1 A controversial video of several doctors, rapidly removed from social media, raised additional questions as to why there are contested opinions on this matter.

Proposed Mechanism of Action for HCQ with COVID-19

Within our cells, we have small intracellular transporters called endosomes that aid in transporting materials. For example, LDL cholesterol binds to a receptor on the outside of a cell membrane, enters the cell, reaches an endosome, is released from the LDL receptor on the cell surface, and then transported to the appropriate processing part of the cell by the endosome.

HCQ changes the acidity of the endosomes which inhibits the fusion of the COVID virus with the host cell membranes. In vitro (in laboratory testing), HCQ may block the transport of the COVID virus within the cell. This is why people argue for its use early in the disease course and why it would make less or no difference late in the disease course.2 The hope is this observed in vitro behavior would also occur in vivo (in the body).

Is it safe?

HCQ, brand name Plaquenil, was developed in 1946 and has been approved for use in other conditions (lupus, rheumatoid arthritis, malaria prophylaxis, etc) for many years. We have many years of data to learn its adverse effects.

I have heard many people say this drug is safe. They argue its safety is evidenced by that the fact it has been out for so long and used so much.

Our long term use of HCQ has demonstrated that people taking HCQ can develop serious adverse effects including irreversible vision loss, bone marrow failure, aplastic anemia, severe cardiac disease, fatigue, suicidal behavior, nightmares, and life threatening skin rashes.

With every medication, doctors try to weigh the potential benefit of using the medication with the potential risks from taking the medicine. Many people might not experience these adverse effects, but if more people take the medication, that number will rise.

If we were to conclude HCQ is helpful in early treatment for COVID-19, each patient and their doctor will need to consider if they think the potential for adverse effects (such as permanent vision loss or early heart disease) is an acceptable risk to treat a disease like COVID, where the majority of infected patients recover without the need for hospitalization.

Does it work?

The current treatment guidelines for COVID-19 recommend against using HCQ for treatment of COVID-19 except in clinical trials.3

Let’s go through and analyze the evidence as objectively as we can:

Positive Studies for use of HCQ in COVID-19 Patients

  1. A Case Series of Hydroxychloroquine Versus Control

    This study followed 26 adults who received HCQ compared with 16 who did not. They removed 6 patients from the HCQ group for different reasons (death, ICU transfer, patients withdrew), 6 patients also received azithromycin, and clinical outcomes were not reported for all patients. This study reported 70% recovery in HCQ group compared with 12.5% in the no HCQ group. Their methods are so inconsistent, number of subjects so low, and the fact that they selectively excluded patients makes me not even want to rate the level of evidence of any conclusions they came up with. Level of evidence: Extremely low

    Gautret P, Lagier JC, Parola P, et al. Hydroxychloroquine and azithromycin as a treatment of COVID-19: results of an open-label non-randomized clinical trial. Int J Antimicrob Agents. 2020. Available at: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/32205204.

  2. Case Series of Hydroxychloroquine Plus Azithromycin

    This study looked at 80 hospitalized patients with HCQ and azithromycin. This study suffers from poor trial design and no control group to compare to. The results, while favorable, thus lack usefulness in determining recommendations and the study is clinically unhelpful. Level of evidence: Low

    Gautret P, Lagier JC, Parola P, et al. Clinical and microbiological effect of a combination of hydroxychloroquine and azithromycin in 80 COVID-19 patients with at least a six-day follow up: a pilot observational study. Travel Med Infect Dis. 2020;34:101663. Available at: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/32289548.

  3. Vadodara Municipal Corporation Analysis

    This is an analysis by a health department from India where they provided HCQ to close contacts of people with COVID. They found a dose-dependent improvement in the COVID infection rate and mortality. From this analysis, this region in India concludes that, “The benefits seem to far outweigh the debate around its risks and it has certainly helped in implementing the preventive strategies planned for the city.” Level of evidence: Low (due to lack of transparency in methods and publication)

    https://indianexpress.com/article/india/vadodara-administration-drive-hcq-helping-in-containing-covid-19-cases-say-docs-as-analysis-begins-6486049/ (I can only find a news article about it and not the actual study)

  4. Retrospective Analysis of Hydroxychloroquine and Azithromycin

    This study reviewed the management of 3,119 patients (mean age=45yo) treated with HCQ and azithromycin. They found treatment was associated with lower ICU transfer and death rates. Level of evidence: Low

    Lagier JC, Million M, Gautret P, et al. Outcomes of 3,737 COVID-19 patients treated with hydroxychloroquine/azithromycin and other regimens in Marseille, France: A retrospective analysis [published online ahead of print, 2020 Jun 25]. Travel Med Infect Dis. 2020;36:101791. 10.1016/j.tmaid.2020.101791

  5. Empirical Treatment with Hydroxychloroquine and Azithromycin in Brazil

    This study offered 636 symptomatic outpatients HCQ and azithromycin and compared those who used the treatment to those who refused. They state those who received the treatment had a much lower hospitalization rate compared with those who refused. There are numerous limitations to this study. Level of evidence: Low

    https://pgibertie.files.wordpress.com/2020/04/2020.04.15-journal-manuscript-final.pdf

  6. Treatment with hydroxychloroquine, azithromycin, and combination in patients hospitalized with COVID-19

    This study looked at 2,541 patients and HCQ with and without azithromycin. They conclude that there is a reduction in mortality. Level of evidence: Low

    Arshad S, Kilgore P, Chaudhry ZS, et al. Treatment with hydroxychloroquine, azithromycin, and combination in patients hospitalized with COVID-19. Int J Infect Dis. 2020;97:396-403. 10.1016/j.ijid.2020.06.099

Negative Studies for use of HCQ in COVID-19 Patients

  1. Observational Study of Hydroxychloroquine at a Large Medical Center in New York City

    This observational study of 1,376 patients and looked at length of time from ER to intubation or death based on receiving HCQ. This study found no association between HCQ use for COVID and harm or benefit. Level of evidence: Low

    Geleris J, Sun Y, Platt J, et al. Observational study of hydroxychloroquine in hospitalized patients with COVID-19. N Engl J Med. 2020. Available at: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/32379955

  2. Retrospective Observational Cohort from the United States Veterans Health Administration (NOT peer reviewed)

    This study compared HCQ, HCQ with azithromycin, and no HCQ. Endpoints were mechanical ventilation or death. This study showed no beneficial effect of hydroxychloroquine plus azithromycin and a possible association between hydroxychloroquine and increased mortality. Level of evidence: Low

    Magagnoli J, Narendran S, Pereira F, et al. Outcomes of hydroxychloroquine usage in United States veterans hospitalized with COVID-19. medRxiv. 2020;[Preprint]. Available at: https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.16.20065920v2.

  3. Randomized Controlled Trial of Hydroxychloroquine Versus Standard of Care for Mild/Moderate COVID-19

    This study of 150 people compared 2 different doses of HCQ and standard of care for patients with mild and moderate COVID disease evaluating the outcome of negative COVID test at 28 days. This study demonstrated no difference in viral clearance between HCQ and not using HCQ. Level of evidence: Low

    Tang W, Cao Z, Han M, et al. Hydroxychloroquine in patients with mainly mild to moderate coronavirus disease 2019: open label, randomised controlled trial. BMJ. 2020;369:m1849. Available at: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/32409561.

  4. Observational Cohort of Hydroxychloroquine Versus No Hydroxychloroquine

    This study of hospitalized patients compared HCQ to no HCQ. They found no difference in clinically important outcomes between patients who received HCQ early on in their hospitalization and those who did not. Level of evidence: Low

    Mahevas M, Tran VT, Roumier M, et al. Clinical efficacy of hydroxychloroquine in patients with COVID-19 pneumonia who require oxygen: observational comparative study using routine care data. BMJ. 2020;369:m1844. Available at: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/32409486

  5. New York Department of Health Study on Hydroxychloroquine With or Without Azithromycin

    This study evaluated HCQ with and without azithromycin in 1,438 hospitalized patients looking at mortality. They found that HCQ and azithromycin together are not associated with increased risk of in-hospital death but may be associated with increased risk of cardiac arrest. Level of evidence: Low

    Rosenberg ES, Dufort EM, Udo T, et al. Association of treatment with hydroxychloroquine or azithromycin with in-hospital mortality in patients with COVID-19 in New York State. JAMA. 2020;323(24):2493-2502. Available at: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/32392282.

  6. Small Prospective Case Series of Hydroxychloroquine Plus Azithromycin

    This study looked at 11 hospitalized patients who received HCQ and azithromycin. They did not find these patients to have rapid viral clearance. Level of evidence: Low

    Molina JM, Delaugerre C, Le Goff J, et al. No evidence of rapid antiviral clearance or clinical benefit with the combination of hydroxychloroquine and azithromycin in patients with severe COVID-19 infection. Med Mal Infect. 2020;50(4):384. Available at: https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/32240719.

Conclusions

As it turns out, studies of HCQ use to treat COVID-19 mostly come from patients with mild or moderate disease. These patients usually recover without hospitalization or additional complications. The overall data is simply limited, of low quality, and difficult to make a definitive conclusion one way or another. Prospective and larger studies are required to provide a valid answer to these questions.

A recent study (An Updated Systematic Review of the Therapeutic Role of Hydroxychloroquine in Coronavirus Disease-19) that reviewed all the current evidence on COVID and HCQ — much more thoroughly than I just did — concluded with, “The results of efficacy and safety of HCQ in COVID-19, as obtained from the clinical studies, are not satisfactory, although many of these studies had major methodological limitations. Stronger evidence from well-designed robust randomized clinical trials is required before conclusively determining the role of HCQ in the treatment of COVID-19. Clinical prudence is required in advocating HCQ as a therapeutic armamentarium in COVID-19.”4 Another in-depth review (A systematic review of the prophylactic role of chloroquine and hydroxychloroquine in coronavirus disease-19) came to similar conclusions.5

Do I recommend using HCQ to my patients?

This is the real crux of the issue. It makes sense to me why HCQ should work early on in COVID patients given the in vitro studies. I read all the studies listed here, thought through their methods and their limitations, and critically appraised their conclusions. I read the opinion piece by the respected Yale epidemiologist and the transcript of the controversial video removed from social media.

After doing my best to honestly weigh both sides of the HCQ question, I am not convinced HCQ sufficiently works in vivo to treat COVID-19 to outweigh the known risks of the medication for most patients.

The FDA has issued a warning of using HCQ outside of a clinical trial due to the increased risk for heart rhythm (cardiac arrest and death).6 I was able to identify 201 active clinical trial studies regarding HCQ for treatment of COVID-19. I am happy to work to enroll patients who want HCQ for COVID into a study that they qualify for. I am encouraged there are so many studies as more evidence will be forthcoming soon!

What about other related treatments?

Remdesivir is used in hospitalized patients. We know HCQ should not be co-administered with remdesivir (an antiviral we know works for those with more severe disease) as it decreases the antiviral activity of remdesivir.7

Azithromycin is helpful in those with COVID who develop pneumonia.

Zinc is helpful in all patients with COVID and I encourage its use.

Footnotes:

1 https://www.newsweek.com/key-defeating-covid-19-already-exists-we-need-start-using-it-opinion-1519535

2 Liu J, Cao R, Xu M, et al. Hydroxychloroquine, a less toxic derivative of chloroquine, is effective in inhibiting SARS-CoV-2 infection in vitro. Cell Discov. 2020;6:16. Available at: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/32194981

3 https://www.covid19treatmentguidelines.nih.gov/

4 Das S, Bhowmick S, Tiwari S, Sen S. An Updated Systematic Review of the Therapeutic Role of Hydroxychloroquine in Coronavirus Disease-19 (COVID-19). Clin Drug Investig. 2020;40(7):591-601. 10.1007/s40261-020-00927-1

5 Shah S, Das S, Jain A, Misra DP, Negi VS. A systematic review of the prophylactic role of chloroquine and hydroxychloroquine in coronavirus disease-19 (COVID-19). Int J Rheum Dis. 2020;23(5):613-619. 10.1111/1756-185X.13842

6 https://www.fda.gov/safety/medical-product-safety-information/hydroxychloroquine-or-chloroquine-covid-19-drug-safety-communication-fda-cautions-against-use

7 Food and Drug Administration. Remdesivir by Gilead Sciences: FDA warns of newly discovered potential drug interaction that may reduce effectiveness of treatment. 2020. Available at: https://www.fda.gov/safety/medical-product-safety-information/remdesivir-gilead-sciences-fda-warns-newly-discovered-potential-drug-interaction-may-reduce.

General

Assessing Current COVID-19 Status of Florida

 

How I assess the current COVID-19 status of Florida:

There are several public sources with data we can all use to make an assessment of the current status for the State of Florida (or any other state).

There are several aspects of an infectious disease process that are important metrics to follow to grasp the situation:

  1. Current level and change of infection rate
  2. Current mortality rate
  3. Hospitalization status
  4. Estimated current prevalence

Here is how I attempt to make an educated assessment on any particular day:

Infection Rate

I use the Florida Department of Health’s dashboard to get an overall indication of infection rate.

We can get a glance of the situation by looking at the new cases of residents by day. These are the numbers that make the headlines. I think these should be viewed from a big picture perspective. It is more important to watch the overall trend than the specific level each day. These numbers have some inherent inaccuracies as they will not include everyone who is infected (under count) and will also include people who are being retested to see if they can return to work (over count).

Looking at visits to Emergency Departments (ED) can give an indication of level of infection. If these visits go up, more people are possibly getting sick (maybe even increase in severity), and if they go down, the opposite is true.

Here you can see that through June these visits were going up, but since early July, they have been decreasing. This could mean fewer infected people. Not everyone needs to visit the ED for management nor need inpatient management. Fewer people requesting help, though, can indicate fewer cases among the public at large.

To get a full impression on infection rate, I suggest to look at the R0 estimate. Today, the R0 for Florida is 0.98, meaning COVID infections are contracting not expanding.

What is great about this website, their algorithm attempts to correct for testing volume giving a potentially more accurate true infection rate. For the end of July, this implied infections is more encouraging than the absolute reported positives.

Mortality Rate

COVID infections matter because people die from it. To understand the COVID situation it is also important to look at the deaths by day from COVID.

At first glance, this looks great, the death rate has dropped dramatically compared with a more flat decrease of infections. I expect there to be a real decrease here, but not as dramatic as this snapshot appears. The numbers from more recent days are under reported, as this data comes from death certificate reports. These will trickle in over the next couple of weeks making this a tough trend to monitor.

Hospitalizations

We “flattened the curve” for COVID to not overrun hospital capacity to care for the sick. As of today, we have 8,992 people hospitalized with the primary diagnosis of COVID. This number is meaningless unless we know what our available hospital bed capacity is. Today, we have 21.91% of our hospital beds available in Florida (15.95% of our ICU beds remain available).

COVID-19 Prevalence

I estimate prevalence (percent of the population who are infected) by totaling the new cases from the last 14 days (as it usually takes 10-14 days to recover) and dividing by the State population. This result is only a guide and will be inaccurate at any level more granular than the state (unless you use county or city numbers).

At this moment, I estimate the prevalence of COVID-19 in Florida at: 0.75%. This is the percent of the population in Florida with an active COVID-19 infection. This number is obviously not consistent across the state; in cities, the prevalence is much higher, while in rural areas likely much lower. In general, though, this is a very low prevalence disease.

Hopefully this helps you out as you continue precautions against COVID-19.

General

I volunteered for a COVID-19 vaccine trial

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I volunteered to participate in a phase 3 COVID-19 vaccine trial, here’s why:

COVID-19 is not going anywhere. As everyone by now knows, you can protect yourself by staying 6 ft away from others and washing your hands frequently. If infected people (with or without symptoms) wear masks, the spread of the virus will slow. These 3 things together are currently all we have to stop more infections from happening.

A vaccine is what is needed to halt COVID-19

Once enough people are inoculated with an effective vaccine, the virus will die out as it will not find many new hosts to infect. The idea of all people wearing masks in public works via a similar mechanism – a physical (much less effective) vaccine of sorts.

We need volunteers to develop an effective vaccine as quickly as possible. We all know vaccines work: smallpox no longer exists in the wild, it is exceedingly rare to see people with lingering effects from polio, families do not lose 3 or more children in 1 year due to diphtheria. I believe in the efficacy and safety of vaccines and I want to actively participate in the solution to combat COVID-19.

While there are currently 140 vaccines being explored it is important to remember that the process to develop a safe and effective new vaccine is typically a lengthy one lasting 10-15 years or longer. Currently, there are 23 vaccine candidates in human clinical trials around the World (US, China, UK, Germany, S Korea, Australia, India, Canada, Japan, and Russia).

The Vaccine Development Process

The process for developing a vaccine begins with the Exploratory stage where potential candidates are worked on that might work. Then the Preclinical stage where safety and efficacy are tested on animals.

This stage is followed by the Clinical Research stage with 3 phases of clinical trials:
1) Phase 1 – Tested on 20 to 100 healthy adults to see how it works.
2) Phase 2 – Tested on up to several hundred people to evaluate the vaccine’s safety, immune response, proper dose, dose schedule, and method of delivery.
3) Phase 3 – The vaccine is tested on 300 to 30,000 people or more to determine how safe the vaccine is among a large group of people.

If a candidate passes Phase 3 clinical trials, it is submitted for approval and licensing by the FDA. It continues to be studied in Post-licensure monitoring after implementation in the public.

COVID-19 Vaccine Candidates

Right now there are several types of vaccines being tested in human clinical trials.

  1. RNA/DNA – Vaccines use genetic material copied from the virus to mimic the natural infection of the coronavirus and cause a person’s immune system to mount a response.
  2. Protein subunit – Vaccines contain proteins taken from the coronavirus that are directly injected into the body to produce an immune response. Current vaccines that work this way include: human papillomavirus infection (HPV), hepatitis B, and shingles vaccines.
  3. Viral vector – Vaccines contain a different virus that is dead or weakened, but includes genetic material from COVID-19. The immune system responds and builds a defense against the genetic material, which then prevents an actual infection.
  4. Weak or inactivated – These types are commonly used for the flu. They contain a weak or inactivated form of COVID-19 to stimulate a person’s immune system to build antibodies. These antibodies can later recognize the virus if an infection happens and trigger a quick, targeted response to fight it off.
  5. Virus-like particle vaccine – These vaccines mimic the structure of the virus, but they don’t include any genetic material. Similar vaccines are hepatitis B and human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccines.

Current Phase 3 Vaccine Candidates

  1. An RNA vaccine made by Moderna and the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases in the US. Their results from phase 1 that showed an immune response in all participants! Phase 3 begins in July.
  2. A viral vector vaccine made by the University of Oxford/ AstraZeneca/ Serum Institute of India in the UK.
  3. An inactivated vaccine made by Sinovac in China. They are approved for phase 3 but have not begun enrollment.

I am excited about the prospect of both participating in this historical period of vaccine development and selfishly, my own potential immunity from COVID-19.

The COVID-19 prevention clinical studies volunteer registry questionnaire was simple and quick to fill out. If you also would consider volunteering, I encourage you to join me!

General, Social Media

July COVID-19 Update Summary for Florida

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COVID Update

COVID-19 is a viral infection touching many extended families throughout the World. As each of us learns of the experiences of those we know and trust, we gain personal insight into it.

Symptoms

People who are sick with COVID-19 often feel profound fatigue, have a dry cough that can make it difficult to speak, and might have uncomfortable high fevers.

Florida Cases

The news has been reporting on our recent surge of new cases here in Florida. Florida has had a total of 4,409 deaths from 291,629 total infections. The first half of July, alone, produced 17.8% of all the Florida cases since the beginning of the pandemic.

Hospitalizations

With the increase in cases, we need to be mindful of hospital capacity to handle this increased load. As of today, hospital bed remaining capacity in Florida is 21% and ICU beds 17%. With 8,345 people with COVID currently hospitalized in Florida, we continue to have remaining capacity to care for patients.

Rate of Spread

The rate of spread of infection is measured by R0. Our current R0 is 1.09, down from a high of 1.34 in early June. This means that every infected person is spreading the infection to an aditional person out of every 11 people they interact with. The spread will slow down when the R0 drops below 1.

To drop our R0, we need to find ways to live normal lives where we can maintain spacing (6ft or more) between people and measures to decrease transmission potential (frequent hand washing and protective masks).

Treatment

I would like to remind everyone that many patients do not require hospitalization and recover safely with over the counter measures at home. At this time, we have no medications to cure COVID-19. There are some that help people feel better, but none have been shown to help you get better faster.

  • But what about Remdesivir? For those with severe illness in the ICU, it helps – but not for those who are not hospitalized.
  • What about hydroxychloroquine? The jury is still out. It is only being used for clinical trials right now.
  • What about budesonide? Maybe for those with asthma, they will feel better. The jury is still out on this otherwise as well given how corticosteroids have a potential for prolonging viral replication (worsening COVID-19)

Treatment remains symptomatic care which means simply addressing symptoms. If there is nausea, we treat nausea. If there is cough, we treat cough. For fatigue, rest.

We also have found that breathing exercises help as does spending time laying on your stomach.

Testing and When to Return to Work

Not everyone needs to be tested. An astounding 2,688,366 COVID-19 tests have been performed so far here in Florida! It is my opinion that asymptomatic people in general, do not need to be tested.

If you have had close contact (less than 6 feet for several minutes) with someone who has COVID, you can quarantine for 14 days after your last contact (as per CDC).

The CDC also has return to work guidelines. You can return to work if at least 3 days (72 hours) have passed since recovery (defined as resolution of fever without the use of fever-reducing medications and improvement in respiratory symptoms) and at least 10 days have passed since symptoms first appeared.

To summarize:

  • Cases have been rising
  • But we continue to have sufficient capacity as a whole across Florida
  • The spread is slowing as R0 has improved from 1.34 to 1.09
  • But there is more to go – the virus is still increasing its spread in Florida
  • We need to continue to be creative as we learn how to live with this virus, which is not going away anytime soon.

References

  • https://experience.arcgis.com/experience/96dd742462124fa0b38ddedb9b25e429/
  • https://ncov2019.live/
  • https://bi.ahca.myflorida.com/t/ABICC/views/Public/COVIDHospitalizationsCounty
  • https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/hcp/faq.html
  • https://ycharts.com/indicators/florida_coronavirus_deaths